It can’t be understated how rough it’s been for Morgan Rielly the past few years. While never the defensive stalwart the Leafs have needed for seemingly decades, his overall play has taken a noticeable step back and the offensive game that once made us overlook his defensive flaws seems to have regressed. But is this just an age-related decline or does this have to do with the system he had to play during the Berube era? 

Let’s start with the 2024/2025 season, when Berube officially took over as the Leafs head coach. This was also the year that the Leafs revamped their blue line, bringing in OEL, Chris Tanev, and eventually Brandon Carlo at the deadline. Right from the start, it felt like OEL and Rielly, two left-handed defense men, were never going to work out. Even though the two spent the most time together at 387 minutes, they never seemed to mesh well together. OEL eventually found his way on the 3rd pair after the Leafs brought in Brandon Carlo at the trade deadline to pair up with Rielly. This tandem worked better, ultimately leading the Leafs to 2-0 series lead over the Florida Panthers in the second round until everything fell apart.

Fast forward to last year and that’s when the wheels really seemed to fell off. Rielly had his worst statistical season since the 2016-2017 year, with a mediocre 36 points in 78 games and a paltry plus/minus of -18. He and Carlo just could not seem to find the success they had from the previous year and you didn’t need to look at the stat sheet to figure it out. Night in and night out, Rielly was getting hemmed in the defensive zone, unable to use his elusive skating and solid puck skills to get them out of trouble. The once crisp passes seemed to go for icings every other play and it looked like we were seeing the decline of Morgan Rielly. For someone who led the defense in salary and was still averaging over 21 minutes per game, you’d expect more. Way more.

But was this a result of age-related decline or could this have been because of the system Berube was playing, which favoured a dump-and-chase style that didn’t suit Reilly’s game? 

If we go back to the year before Berube came in, Rielly had just put up one of the best seasons of his career. He recorded nearly 60 points and was a +7, averaging over 23 minutes a game. He was voted into the All-Star game and even received a few Lady Byng votes (although, I’m not sure how great of an achievement this is for a defenseman). This was all while playing primarily with a fast-declining TJ Brodie, who was relieved of his services the following season. While the playoff success still wasn’t there, Rielly still had a very solid season and proved he was still a top 4 defenseman in this league.

Now, the Leafs are at a crossroads. They recently signed Darren Raddysh to play that coveted QB1 role and lock down the top RD spot, traded for a young, swift moving left-defenseman in Emil Andrae, and shipped out his former defensive partner Brandon Carlo to the St. Louis Blues. 

Taking a step back and understanding what made their new highest paid defenseman Raddysh so successful in Tampa, you’d see that he was playing with rock solid defensive options in Victor Hedman and JJ Moser. With those two, Raddysh was able to blossom offensively, using his feet and puck skills to join the attack while Hedman and Moser covered for him. This, along with his spot as QB1 on a dangerous Tampa power play, led him to setting career highs in goals (22) and points (70). Do I expect that output again? No, but if that formula can give us even half of that production, the Leafs will do everything in their power to make it work. 

Rielly is not Hedman. Nor is he even JJ Moser. Guys like OEL and McCabe likely fit their style better than Rielly does. But in a new offense-oriented system, facing lesser competition and ice time on the 2nd pair with someone like Chris Tanev, could Morgan Rielly rebound and give us something similar to what he put up in his first and only All-Star season? He won’t get the PP1 time he received in the 2023/2024 season, but this team has enough firepower to allow him to get his points while complementing a system that Chayka and Hiller want to see played. A system where the defensemen become the connective tissue between forward and defense. A system where our defense support our forwards, making strong outlet passes and supporting them in the rush. 

Whether you want to admit it or not, removing Morgan Rielly and not replacing him with something similar will make us a weaker team in transition. And unless you are trading assets (which we don’t have much of), you aren’t finding a player like him in free agency. With a new coach, a new system, and new faces up front to connect with, keeping Morgan Rielly might not be everyone’s favourite option, but it certainly could be the right one.